The Hidden Power of Mathematics

In baseball, with a man on first base and no outs, almost all managers will have their next batter bunt to move the runner to second base, placing him in scoring position. This decision had been figuratively engraved in stone for over 100 years. Then, Billy Beane and the Oakland Athletics hired a statistician to look at the hard facts — and everything changed. The data definitively showed that not bunting the runner to second base resulted in a far greater probability that the runner would be able to score from first base, by giving the team an extra at bat to drive in the runner. Only an in-depth mathematical analysis could uncover the certainty hiding under the gut- feel and intuition that previously dictated the decision making. Math can reveal what is not immediately obvious. But more than that, it has the power to change our perception of the world around us; rewriting thinking patterns that lead to an increase in efficiency, productivity and even home runs.

We all want as much certainty as possible around our intended outcomes in life, but especially in business. Mathematical models have continued to evolve to create this often hidden certainty. For example, regression models were developed to determine how independent variables can affect the dependent variables; by using the historical data fed to it, the model identifies the correlations between the independent and dependent variables. A more sophisticated example of this at work is the Black-Scholes model. Developed in 1972, the Black-Scholes model uses a unique a mathematical equation to create certainty around the pricing of an option.

Utilizing the implied volatility of the underlying stock, the current interest rate, the current stock price, the exercise price and the time to expiration as inputs, the model calculates the present value of all the expected future cash flows of the option. In other words, it analyzes the weighted probability distribution of continuous expected cash flows. The result is a price (present value) of an option at any point in time that is 95% accurate, contingent on the inputted implied volatility. This model became the foundation of the financial derivatives markets. In situations where one does not have sufficient historical data to estimate the probability distribution of an underlying variable, another mathematical tool was developed: “Monte Carlo Simulations”, which provide a substitute for the historical data by running thousands of possible outcomes, off of which a probability distribution is based.

While these equations have been developed to take the guesswork out of potential value creation, one area in business that has continued to be dominated by gut-feel or knowledgeable guesswork is sales projection. Most companies have to live through multiple sales cycles to realize the need for recalibration, forcing them to lose valuable time to reach their goal. Sales projections are very similar to bunting in baseball. Without the correct mathematical tools, we have to rely on our experience, even if it is qualitative rather than quantitative.



P3rceive is the first company to build a software using parts of the Black Scholes model and Monte Carlo Simulations to create certainty in the probabilities of an expected revenue outcome from a company’s sales process. While similar models have been created for supply chain processes, the sales process has been, up to now, very difficult to model. Whereas, the Black Scholes model is able to access large amounts of historical data to correlate its inputs to outputs, P3rceive uses the historical inputs of the company’s actual sales numbers and “Monte Carlo Simulation” mathematics to map out 10,000 probable outcomes for each change in a sales variable. Similar to the Black-Scholes model’s calculation of the present value of an option, P3rceive builds a probability distribution around the 10,000 simulated potential outcomes resulting from the change in a sales variable and identifies the probability that the desired revenue outcome will be reached.



Projecting future sales or bunting with a runner on first were dictated by long standing traditions that are difficult to drop without the factual support of probability. What P3rceive reveals through machine learning are the “hidden opportunities” that businesses have been missing out on due to long standing traditions or lack of data. Through this simulation process, P3rceive provides companies with a simple tool that grants access to actionable facts in the face of historical “maybes,” ultimately, giving businesses the green light to hit their ball out of the park.

Insight News

NextSTOP Consulting Purchases AI-Powered Modeling Program To Help Its Clients Allocate Resources For Growth

Chicago, IL — 11.2 Ventures, LLC, announced that its AI-driven platform, p3rceive, is being adopted by NextSTOP Consulting, a New York-based consultancy specializing in the digital transformation of small and medium-sized companies, to enhance its services. With p3rceive, NextSTOP Consulting can enable its clients to set a target for sales or revenue and identify the obstacles to getting there. By automating natural language descriptions for each model it generates—including highlighting where resources are either overallocated or underutilized—p3rceive translates sophisticated statistics into clear, actionable information for decision-makers.


Bob Bonomo, NextSTOP’s Founder and CEO, called p3rceive “a great new tool for our clients. Never before have they been able to input different resource allocations and receive a percentage likelihood that that arrangement would achieve the goals they’ve set. The ability to test out various distributions of human capital and time before they make any changes in the real world is an invaluable tool.”


11.2 Ventures Co-founder Dmitry Valbe commented, “We are proud that Bob and his team will be using our platform to help their clients make truly informed decisions about their path for growth. While the math behind p3rceive is complicated, we’ve developed the platform to be extremely easy to use. We believe it will make an immediate difference for companies interested in data- and probability-based decision-making.”


P3rceive is one of the first companies generated by 11.2 Ventures, LLC, the Chicago-based venture builder studio (VBS). The VBS model was developed to improve the success rate of early stage startups by seeding, growing, and launching its own companies in-house. Drawing on the expertise of its management team and executive board, 11.2 Ventures was engineered to overcome each of the major causes behind the dismal tech startup failure rate—including poor market fit and dysfunctional leadership teams. As 11.2 Ventures Co-founder Kurt Johnson remarked, “p3rceive is the result of 11.2’s co-founders’ combined market expertise, collaborative leadership, and focused management. The NextSTOP deal is a great validation for us and for the VBS model overall.”



About NextSTOP Consulting

NextSTOP is a boutique consulting firm strictly focused on the digital transformation needs of small and medium-sized businesses. Utilizing their Digital PathfinderTM Model, NextSTOP formalizes and executes each client’s unique digital transformation strategy. As a “Technology General Contractor,” NextSTOP provides clients with a single point of contact for strategy development and program management, while seamlessly integrating best-in-class business and technology experts from their Global Partner Exchange Network, whose growing membership focus areas include Infrastructure; Cyber Security; Web, Mobile and Cloud software development; Machine Learning; Big Data and Analytics; Blockchain; AI; DevOps and Robotic Process Automation. 
For more information, visit:

About p3rceive

P3rceive is a sales capacity planning tool that offers its users a dynamic, multi-variable, probability-based model of future sales—while also identifying the specific allocation of resources needed to get there. Tying a company’s sales revenue range to its unique inputs—not just sales hours but also the legal team’s time; not just production but also distribution—p3rceive instantly maps out 10,000 probable outcomes for each change in a sales variable and gives the probability that the desired outcome will be reached. Harnessing Bayesian statistics and powerful math, this software allows sales executives and the C-suite to calibrate resources with certainty rather than intuition, making p3rceive the first software to accurately model—and optimize for—growth. For more, please visit

Insight News

11.2 Ventures Brings On New Industry Sector Heads To Create, Build, And Launch AI-Powered Companies In Their Fields

Chicago, IL —11.2 Ventures is pleased to announce that Rohit Khanna, President and CEO of 3D Infotech, William Blair Managing Director Shay Brokemond, and Kat Van Fossen, Founder of The Aspire Agency, will be bringing their diverse expertise and entrepreneurial energies to the Chicago-based venture builder studio (VBS). Highly successful leaders in their fields, Khanna, Brokemond, and Van Fossen will be identifying the gaps they see in their respective industries—and providing the ideas and vision for new AI-driven companies that can meet those gaps.


“I already get to exercise my management and leadership skills in my role at 3D Infotech,” said Rohit Khanna, the new Head of Smart Manufacturing at 11.2 Ventures. “But the opportunity at 11.2 means I also get to flex my entrepreneurial imagination. I am so eager to get back to the unique thrill of developing a company from scratch.” About what Khanna will be contributing to the team, 11.2 Ventures Co-founder Kurt Johnson remarked, “We could not be more excited that Rohit is bringing his vast computer vision expertise and judgment to ideate and guide our ventures in that area.”   


Shay Brokemond will be taking on the role of 11.2’s Head of Agricultural Technology. Recently named one of Mergers & Acquisitions’ 2020 Most Influential Women in Mid-Market M&A, Brokemond has a deep background in engineering as well as over 15 years’ banking experience. Having worked with several Fortune 500 companies before becoming Managing Director at the Global Investment Banking and Asset Management giant William Blair, Brokemond understands the vision, financial justification, and business milestones necessary for an early-stage company to thrive. “What appeals to me so strongly about the venture builder studio model is that I can apply both the engineering and financial insights I’ve gained over my career—at a time in a company’s life where those insights are most critical,” said Brokemond. 11.2 Ventures Co-founder Gary Scheier commented, “Getting Shay as one of our first industry sector leaders is a huge coup. She has her finger on the pulse of agriculture and is so perceptive about the capabilities that would directly help that industry. We are enormously lucky to have her on our team.”


Founder of the behavioral science-informed marketing consultancy The Aspire Agency, Kat Van Fossen is the new Head of Marketing both for 11.2 Ventures and for its portfolio companies. According to Johnson, “Kat is the whole package: she’s talented, enthusiastic, and artistic—but she can also explain in detail the data supporting a specific creative strategy. She has established brand identity and amplified brand awareness for a wide range of companies, and we are extremely fortunate to have her come on board.” According to Van Fossen, “Coming from a consultancy background, the diversity of 11.2’s portfolio companies is a real draw. I’m also convinced that the structure and AI focus of our VBS program will help early-stage tech companies overcome the challenges they face.”


In the VBS model, the role of an industry sector head is quite different than similar-sounding roles at entities like accelerators or incubators. In those other models, executives are asked to mentor or assist the outside entrepreneurs responsible for supplying the idea for the startup. Ultimately, then, an accelerator or incubator’s success depends on the creativity, acumen, and decision-making of those entrepreneurs; in-house experts are there to serve mainly as helpers or guides. In the VBS model, industry sector heads are the entrepreneurs. Drawing on deep knowledge of their respective industries, they collaborate with other sector heads and the studio’s executive team to create the companies they know their industries need. In addition to the team’s diversified expertise, they have at their fingertips the resources being developed across the studio’s other portfolio companies. In the case of 11.2 Ventures, this means access to powerful, flexible artificial intelligence applications.


Industry sector heads are crucial to the VBS model, which was developed precisely to eliminate the risk introduced by working with untested entrepreneurs. Instead of minimizing that risk by withholding resources from early-stage companies—an approach favored by venture capital funds—venture builder studios confront both the unacceptable technology startup failure rate and the resulting capital flight from early-stage ventures by seeding, growing, and launching their own companies. As 11.2 Ventures Co-founder Dmitry Valbe put it, “We are an operating company whose ‘widgets’ are companies—a fund whose portfolio consists entirely of internally created ventures—and a tightly managed portfolio that focuses on AI implementations of computer vision, econometrics, and natural language understanding. In the end, though, our overarching mission is to build and launch viable businesses—and that is something our sector heads make possible.”


About 11.2 Ventures
Building a diversified group of Artificial Intelligence-based companies internally, 11.2 Ventures maintains control and consistency throughout the companies’ growth process and exits them opportunistically. 11.2 Ventures has spent over four years developing an innovative methodology designed to increase the probability that these early-stage ventures will be viable. Borrowing heavily from corporate processes and financial services risk management approaches, 11.2 Ventures has found the formula for consistent and repeatable success.  


For media inquiries, please contact:

Dan Conley

Beacon Communications